Measuring Public Attention Through UAP Reports and Economic Trends
Measuring Public Attention Through UAP Reports and Economic Trends
A groundbreaking study published in Humanities and Social Sciences Communications introduces a new method for measuring public attention by analyzing reports of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP). The research connects unconventional indicators with macroeconomic analysis, uncovering surprising correlations between UAP sightings and economic conditions in various regions across the United States.
The study emphasizes that UAP sightings, often seen as a fringe topic, can act as a reliable proxy for public attention. By examining daily data from the National UFO Reporting Center (NUFORC), the researchers found that UAP sightings occur more frequently in wealthier areas and demonstrate counter-cyclical patterns within those regions over time. This suggests that changes in the focus on extraordinary events could reflect broader public shifts in attention.
Macroeconomic correlation: UAP sightings are positively correlated with economic conditions across different regions, but show counter-cyclical trends within regions over time.
Causal evidence: A quasi-experimental design using variations in COVID-19 lockdown restrictions shows a causal relationship between restricted mobility and an increase in UAP reports, reinforcing the idea that UAP sightings reflect public attention.
Policy implications: Areas with higher UAP sightings display muted reactions to monetary policy changes, indicating that variations in public attention can influence economic outcomes significantly.
The researchers compared UAP sighting data to traditional attention metrics, finding strong correlations. This novel approach offers unique advantages, including the ability to study public attention across different geographic and temporal contexts.
Goldstein and Raveh's research highlights the crucial role of public attention in shaping economic dynamics. Their work not only expands tools for macroeconomic analysis but also provides valuable insights for policymakers on how managing public attention might help mitigate economic disruptions. The study encourages further investigation into how unconventional attention forms, such as UAP sightings, influence economic behavior. "We hope this study sparks future research that deepens our understanding of the connection between public attention and macroeconomic outcomes," the authors say.
By analyzing comprehensive UAP data from NUFORC, spanning more than 20 years, the research builds a daily-level panel of UAP reports across U.S. counties, incorporating economic, social, and environmental factors for a more thorough analysis.
This pioneering work underscores the potential of unconventional data in understanding economic trends, inviting new perspectives on the role of seemingly unrelated phenomena in economic analysis.
